My Take on Early NH GOP Primary Polling
Recent news cycles have channeled the latest polls from New Hampshire (thanks to New Hampshire Primary 2012 blog) to refer to Michelle Bachmann's latest rise in the GOP field after she announced her candidacy during the June 13th debate at St. Anselm's Institute of Politics in Manchester, NH. The latest poll conducted by Suffolk University and 7 News found her with 11%, behind Mitt Romney with 36% and above Ron Paul with 8%. This poll included people not yet in the race like Rudy Giuliani (5%), Sarah Palin (4%), Rick Perry (2%) and George Pataki (1%) while excluding announced candidates like Gary Johnson who recently opened a campaign office in downtown Manchester.
In CNN and WMUR's NH Primary Poll conducted by the UNH Survey Center published May 23rd had Michelle Bachmann with 4% behind Romney, Ron Paul, Giuliani and lead balloon candidateNewt Gingrich.
Bachmann certainly has seen a surge in the last few weeks, but will it keep? Many GOP voters are reacting to these polls simply on name recognition, which sometimes can create a feedback loop this early in the season. I think this is especially apparent in Donald Trump's flare-up in late April and the constant dominance by Mitt Romney in New Hampshire polls. Romney has always had high numbers in New Hampshire and his campaign apparatus has kept since 2008 so he's sure to command high early numbers this cycle. Governor of a neighboring state and a big fundraiser, its hard for Republicans to go for anybody else but Romney these days, but this is before most voters start to pay attention. There is a long campaign season ahead.
A substantial amount of GOP voters jumped on the Trump bandwagon for the 3-4 weeks it existed, giving the real estate billionaire 10% in WMUR's Granite State Poll, published May 4th. This can be seen as a large chunk of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire shopping for candidates and reacting to big names in the field once they show up only to burn up a few weeks later. Voters have not seen to the message and organizational styles of each candidates campaigns yet, much learned anything about them or their policies. Once the fall rolls around, the real players will find their stroke and we'll see a race.
New Hampshire voters are reluctant to admit they've chosen a candidate this early. They're waiting to meet each of them a few times so they can decide.
In CNN and WMUR's NH Primary Poll conducted by the UNH Survey Center published May 23rd had Michelle Bachmann with 4% behind Romney, Ron Paul, Giuliani and lead balloon candidateNewt Gingrich.
Bachmann certainly has seen a surge in the last few weeks, but will it keep? Many GOP voters are reacting to these polls simply on name recognition, which sometimes can create a feedback loop this early in the season. I think this is especially apparent in Donald Trump's flare-up in late April and the constant dominance by Mitt Romney in New Hampshire polls. Romney has always had high numbers in New Hampshire and his campaign apparatus has kept since 2008 so he's sure to command high early numbers this cycle. Governor of a neighboring state and a big fundraiser, its hard for Republicans to go for anybody else but Romney these days, but this is before most voters start to pay attention. There is a long campaign season ahead.
A substantial amount of GOP voters jumped on the Trump bandwagon for the 3-4 weeks it existed, giving the real estate billionaire 10% in WMUR's Granite State Poll, published May 4th. This can be seen as a large chunk of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire shopping for candidates and reacting to big names in the field once they show up only to burn up a few weeks later. Voters have not seen to the message and organizational styles of each candidates campaigns yet, much learned anything about them or their policies. Once the fall rolls around, the real players will find their stroke and we'll see a race.
New Hampshire voters are reluctant to admit they've chosen a candidate this early. They're waiting to meet each of them a few times so they can decide.
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