Politics in Latin America and what it says about the future of the War on Drugs
The last 5 years of an ever-volatile drug war have scarred the people of Mexico and changed the diplomatic and economic relationships between the US and its southern neighbor. In December 2006, the new President Felipe Calderon wasted no time executing his security policy. He deployed 50,000 federal troops to combat the cartels and dismantle their networks shortly after taking office. Seven-thousand into the southern state of Michocan, Calderon's home state where drug-related murders had reached 500 the year earlier.
The total of violent deaths in association with organized crime over the past 5 years varies depending on source, but most agree that it has topped 40,000 in recent months. It rose 60% in 2010 and although Calderon has claimed success on large drug seizures and capturing drug lords, that grim number still looms bringing some to question the effectiveness of his plan.
How have Mexicans reacted to the ubiquitous drug war, and how will they decide on a solution amid next year's elections? Since elections for President in Mexico are always non-incumbent, the public is more likely to deliver its praise--or anger--in returns for the parties simply because they cannot vote on the record of a particular candidate. In a recent special election in Michocan, Fausto Vallejo of the PRI, the Institutional Revolution Party defeated PAN candidate Luisa Maria Calderon, President Calderon's sister. She had vowed to continue her brother's heavy-handed security strategy to combat the cartels. By a vote of 35-33%, voters denied her that opportunity, signaling a tough national election for the President's party, the National Action Party or the PAN. The candidate for the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD logged 29% of the vote; the PRD had held the Governor's seat for the last 12 years.
Seems as though after 5 years of watching their government fight the cartels' fire with fire, Mexicans are beginning to reject President Calderon's security strategy. Although they may have not found another solution, I imagine we will see a realignment of the parties and a different approach to dealing with the large-scale illegal drug markets that fund Mexico's most dangerous criminal enterprises.
But while Mexicans may be willing to reject the use of direct force against the cartels, citizens of Guatemala may be craving the swift fist of justice to quell the recent rise in violence there (murders rose 15% in 2008). Less than 2 weeks ago Guatemalans voted to elect retired general and former intelligence director Otto Perez Molina by 54%. Molina campaigned on his "iron-fist" approach to fighting crime that, coupled with his extensive military background during Guatemala's bloody civil war, gave desperate Guatemalans a choice to restore order to the country ravaged by drug violence. As interdiction by US and Mexican law enforcement has intensified through the Colombian connection to Miami and the Gulf of Mexico, cartels have been forced to concentrate trafficking through Central America; the lush forests of Guatemala provide the perfect cover. No doubt, it will prove a difficult task for newly-elected President Molina to take on the cartels with a public safety budget that some say is already spread too thin. Pressure on Colombia caused some suppliers to uproot and produce directly in Mexico. The "Golden Triangle," the meeting ofDurango , Chihuahua
It seems as though there can be no ceiling to the havoc that cartels can reek on local Central American communities, but is the only way to dismantle the cartels through heavy force? President Calderon and President-elect Molina may celebrate over large busts and captures of cartel higher-ups but no matter how much is interdicted, the vast majority of illegal drugs grown in Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America make it to the US. predict that supply-reduction efforts like interdiction by governments in Latin America and the vast network of US government agencies all devoted to fighting drugs only catch about 10%**
The only way to truly dismantle the cartels is to literally defund them. The US, as the principal consumer of illegal drugs in the West, must abandon the failed policy of prohibition that has relegated millions of consumers and billions of dollars to the danger and uncertainty of the black market. Removed from the rule of law and standard market practice of established businesses, illicit drugs are the premier source of income for criminal organizations. Prohibition has turned the real problem of drug abuse in society into a widespread threat of gang violence for many in Latin American and US cities, many who would never have been affected by drugs otherwise.
The total of violent deaths in association with organized crime over the past 5 years varies depending on source, but most agree that it has topped 40,000 in recent months. It rose 60% in 2010 and although Calderon has claimed success on large drug seizures and capturing drug lords, that grim number still looms bringing some to question the effectiveness of his plan.
How have Mexicans reacted to the ubiquitous drug war, and how will they decide on a solution amid next year's elections? Since elections for President in Mexico are always non-incumbent, the public is more likely to deliver its praise--or anger--in returns for the parties simply because they cannot vote on the record of a particular candidate. In a recent special election in Michocan, Fausto Vallejo of the PRI, the Institutional Revolution Party defeated PAN candidate Luisa Maria Calderon, President Calderon's sister. She had vowed to continue her brother's heavy-handed security strategy to combat the cartels. By a vote of 35-33%, voters denied her that opportunity, signaling a tough national election for the President's party, the National Action Party or the PAN. The candidate for the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD logged 29% of the vote; the PRD had held the Governor's seat for the last 12 years.
Seems as though after 5 years of watching their government fight the cartels' fire with fire, Mexicans are beginning to reject President Calderon's security strategy. Although they may have not found another solution, I imagine we will see a realignment of the parties and a different approach to dealing with the large-scale illegal drug markets that fund Mexico's most dangerous criminal enterprises.
But while Mexicans may be willing to reject the use of direct force against the cartels, citizens of Guatemala may be craving the swift fist of justice to quell the recent rise in violence there (murders rose 15% in 2008). Less than 2 weeks ago Guatemalans voted to elect retired general and former intelligence director Otto Perez Molina by 54%. Molina campaigned on his "iron-fist" approach to fighting crime that, coupled with his extensive military background during Guatemala's bloody civil war, gave desperate Guatemalans a choice to restore order to the country ravaged by drug violence. As interdiction by US and Mexican law enforcement has intensified through the Colombian connection to Miami and the Gulf of Mexico, cartels have been forced to concentrate trafficking through Central America; the lush forests of Guatemala provide the perfect cover. No doubt, it will prove a difficult task for newly-elected President Molina to take on the cartels with a public safety budget that some say is already spread too thin. Pressure on Colombia caused some suppliers to uproot and produce directly in Mexico. The "Golden Triangle," the meeting of
It seems as though there can be no ceiling to the havoc that cartels can reek on local Central American communities, but is the only way to dismantle the cartels through heavy force? President Calderon and President-elect Molina may celebrate over large busts and captures of cartel higher-ups but no matter how much is interdicted, the vast majority of illegal drugs grown in Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America make it to the US. predict that supply-reduction efforts like interdiction by governments in Latin America and the vast network of US government agencies all devoted to fighting drugs only catch about 10%**
The only way to truly dismantle the cartels is to literally defund them. The US, as the principal consumer of illegal drugs in the West, must abandon the failed policy of prohibition that has relegated millions of consumers and billions of dollars to the danger and uncertainty of the black market. Removed from the rule of law and standard market practice of established businesses, illicit drugs are the premier source of income for criminal organizations. Prohibition has turned the real problem of drug abuse in society into a widespread threat of gang violence for many in Latin American and US cities, many who would never have been affected by drugs otherwise.
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